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Trump’s Tariffs (and Retaliatory Ones) for Canada, Mexico and China Would Impact These States the Most — and How Americans Feel About Their Impact
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If a potential blanket tariff on goods from Canada, Mexico and China materializes, eight states would see at least two-thirds of their imports impacted, according to a new LendingTree analysis.
To better understand the potential impact, LendingTree analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data to see which states have the highest percentage of imports from these three countries. Given the potential for these countries to implement blanket tariffs on their goods in response, we also looked into which states send the highest percentage of exports to these countries. We found massive differences across states, with some enormously dependent on these countries and others only slightly so.
While the complete impact of potential tariffs on each state is unclear, people’s views on these tariffs aren’t. A majority of Americans believe tariffs will lead to higher prices, and many believe they’ll negatively impact their personal finances, according to a LendingTree survey.
Here’s what we found.
Key findings
- Eight states get at least two-thirds of their imports from Canada, Mexico and China, while four get less than one-quarter from these three. Montana (94.3%), New Mexico (76.9%) and Vermont (75.0%) have the highest combined percentages, while Hawaii (12.8%), New Jersey (20.8%) and Maryland (22.9%) have the lowest.
- Conversely, four states send at least two-thirds of their exports to those three countries, while five states and the District of Columbia send less than one-quarter of their exports there. North Dakota (88.2%), New Mexico (78.9%) and South Dakota (71.8%) have the highest combined percentages, while D.C. (0.7%), Hawaii (6.0%) and Florida (16.2%) have the lowest.
- Nearly 3 in 4 Americans believe tariffs will lead to higher prices. 74% of respondents say they think tariffs will lead to an increase in the prices of goods. Two-thirds (67%) of Republicans say so, as do 85% of Democrats and 73% of independents. Also, the older you are, the more likely you agree.
- 44% of Americans think tariffs will impact their finances negatively, while 28% say they’ll have a positive impact. Another 28% think tariffs will have no effect. Women and older Americans are among the most likely groups to see the potential impacts as negative. Meanwhile, millennials and parents of young kids are among the most likely to see them as positive. Also, 46% of Republicans believe they’ll positively affect their finances, versus just 20% of independents and 17% of Democrats.
States most vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs
| Rank | State | Total imports | Imports from Canada | % of imports from Canada | Imports from Mexico | % of imports from Mexico | Imports from China | % of imports from China | % of imports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana | $7,435,780,657 | $6,818,286,900 | 91.7% | $110,622,617 | 1.5% | $85,229,548 | 1.1% | 94.3% |
| 2 | New Mexico | $6,012,430,661 | $568,573,679 | 9.5% | $2,464,657,787 | 41.0% | $1,587,644,483 | 26.4% | 76.9% |
| 3 | Vermont | $3,767,992,923 | $2,543,133,752 | 67.5% | $91,422,520 | 2.4% | $189,893,732 | 5.0% | 75.0% |
| 4 | Michigan | $171,163,683,088 | $50,788,183,627 | 29.7% | $69,021,705,915 | 40.3% | $8,312,635,296 | 4.9% | 74.9% |
| 5 | Maine | $7,265,368,207 | $5,040,114,477 | 69.4% | $111,454,592 | 1.5% | $167,145,865 | 2.3% | 73.2% |
| 6 | North Dakota | $4,696,808,181 | $2,984,487,270 | 63.5% | $205,270,083 | 4.4% | $170,174,383 | 3.6% | 71.5% |
| 7 | Oklahoma | $17,756,683,987 | $9,022,392,340 | 50.8% | $1,131,066,027 | 6.4% | $2,496,237,138 | 14.1% | 71.2% |
| 8 | Wyoming | $1,029,342,212 | $560,635,733 | 54.5% | $27,447,636 | 2.7% | $115,434,541 | 11.2% | 68.3% |
| 9 | Iowa | $13,308,808,781 | $4,053,528,147 | 30.5% | $2,737,862,181 | 20.6% | $1,419,991,394 | 10.7% | 61.7% |
| 10 | South Dakota | $1,681,382,968 | $684,447,680 | 40.7% | $92,222,594 | 5.5% | $255,716,009 | 15.2% | 61.4% |
| 11 | Illinois | $224,851,365,957 | $65,425,454,615 | 29.1% | $18,257,241,536 | 8.1% | $45,697,301,525 | 20.3% | 57.5% |
| 12 | Utah | $18,578,468,217 | $3,074,291,084 | 16.5% | $4,871,672,900 | 26.2% | $2,687,859,516 | 14.5% | 57.2% |
| 13 | Minnesota | $37,230,895,652 | $14,193,228,555 | 38.1% | $3,279,085,295 | 8.8% | $3,646,316,476 | 9.8% | 56.7% |
| 14 | Texas | $382,542,561,772 | $36,962,230,200 | 9.7% | $142,733,396,590 | 37.3% | $32,706,701,932 | 8.5% | 55.5% |
| 15 | Arizona | $35,380,693,937 | $2,598,548,954 | 7.3% | $11,753,926,407 | 33.2% | $3,911,895,970 | 11.1% | 51.6% |
| 16 | West Virginia | $4,807,006,627 | $2,108,763,628 | 43.9% | $160,645,954 | 3.3% | $188,817,280 | 3.9% | 51.1% |
| 17 | Washington | $66,197,154,612 | $19,890,988,657 | 30.0% | $1,732,691,767 | 2.6% | $12,035,922,863 | 18.2% | 50.8% |
| 18 | Missouri | $26,837,591,717 | $4,315,373,394 | 16.1% | $4,842,968,953 | 18.0% | $4,198,286,790 | 15.6% | 49.8% |
| 19 | Nebraska | $5,921,512,654 | $1,466,402,853 | 24.8% | $730,219,365 | 12.3% | $727,023,892 | 12.3% | 49.4% |
| 20 | Colorado | $17,791,188,094 | $5,543,255,316 | 31.2% | $1,226,931,697 | 6.9% | $1,974,919,938 | 11.1% | 49.2% |
| 21 | Ohio | $79,735,006,791 | $17,896,688,386 | 22.4% | $11,382,126,756 | 14.3% | $9,390,992,568 | 11.8% | 48.5% |
| 22 | Connecticut | $21,988,499,429 | $5,836,592,674 | 26.5% | $3,557,370,088 | 16.2% | $1,242,251,887 | 5.6% | 48.4% |
| 23 | Wisconsin | $39,260,087,512 | $6,254,065,467 | 15.9% | $6,021,166,474 | 15.3% | $5,842,524,380 | 14.9% | 46.1% |
| 24 | Massachusetts | $43,209,485,698 | $11,315,444,873 | 26.2% | $4,883,760,353 | 11.3% | $3,339,152,023 | 7.7% | 45.2% |
| 25 | California | $450,347,739,293 | $15,682,774,364 | 3.5% | $61,499,678,310 | 13.7% | $120,500,706,939 | 26.8% | 43.9% |
| 26 | Arkansas | $6,832,179,624 | $1,146,128,631 | 16.8% | $911,720,129 | 13.3% | $890,062,855 | 13.0% | 43.1% |
| 27 | Alabama | $37,231,253,154 | $3,447,986,436 | 9.3% | $8,146,198,474 | 21.9% | $4,293,349,057 | 11.5% | 42.7% |
| 28 | Tennessee | $107,141,937,387 | $6,764,331,127 | 6.3% | $14,044,479,456 | 13.1% | $20,324,401,734 | 19.0% | 38.4% |
| 29 | Mississippi | $19,951,527,924 | $1,930,130,565 | 9.7% | $2,877,167,636 | 14.4% | $2,820,485,260 | 14.1% | 38.2% |
| 30 | Nevada | $18,939,790,375 | $1,525,246,470 | 8.1% | $1,380,059,483 | 7.3% | $4,159,423,732 | 22.0% | 37.3% |
| 31 | Kansas | $12,956,527,083 | $2,146,554,848 | 16.6% | $1,223,342,950 | 9.4% | $1,436,335,909 | 11.1% | 37.1% |
| 32 | Oregon | $19,359,597,353 | $4,110,487,657 | 21.2% | $895,685,185 | 4.6% | $2,046,586,709 | 10.6% | 36.4% |
| 33 | Dist of Columbia | $1,591,034,932 | $182,678,170 | 11.5% | $77,070,876 | 4.8% | $298,403,381 | 18.8% | 35.1% |
| 34 | Pennsylvania | $113,016,047,397 | $13,627,516,298 | 12.1% | $6,648,713,697 | 5.9% | $17,924,422,080 | 15.9% | 33.8% |
| 35 | Rhode Island | $10,078,712,279 | $1,444,879,065 | 14.3% | $1,434,948,601 | 14.2% | $503,783,077 | 5.0% | 33.6% |
| 36 | Virginia | $33,865,149,761 | $2,743,907,790 | 8.1% | $2,768,799,256 | 8.2% | $5,669,441,154 | 16.7% | 33.0% |
| 37 | Louisiana | $31,684,986,673 | $3,229,374,172 | 10.2% | $5,824,819,696 | 18.4% | $1,142,545,240 | 3.6% | 32.2% |
| 38 | South Carolina | $54,124,137,692 | $3,473,909,947 | 6.4% | $5,554,488,166 | 10.3% | $8,188,925,467 | 15.1% | 31.8% |
| 39 | New Hampshire | $9,617,777,694 | $2,017,202,564 | 21.0% | $486,933,844 | 5.1% | $494,161,264 | 5.1% | 31.2% |
| 40 | Idaho | $6,091,130,787 | $1,354,827,547 | 22.2% | $168,731,481 | 2.8% | $289,572,109 | 4.8% | 29.8% |
| 41 | New York | $157,200,779,488 | $22,517,211,336 | 14.3% | $3,481,138,043 | 2.2% | $18,821,397,519 | 12.0% | 28.5% |
| 42 | Alaska | $3,236,797,799 | $750,174,109 | 23.2% | $99,268,650 | 3.1% | $68,213,527 | 2.1% | 28.4% |
| 43 | Kentucky | $72,422,986,198 | $6,002,457,113 | 8.3% | $7,892,349,187 | 10.9% | $6,431,347,312 | 8.9% | 28.1% |
| 44 | North Carolina | $80,056,872,082 | $4,644,557,552 | 5.8% | $10,330,055,125 | 12.9% | $7,300,627,427 | 9.1% | 27.8% |
| 45 | Georgia | $136,856,196,896 | $6,536,058,235 | 4.8% | $13,731,721,664 | 10.0% | $17,534,928,427 | 12.8% | 27.6% |
| 46 | Indiana | $91,422,368,829 | $11,118,748,180 | 12.2% | $5,953,058,717 | 6.5% | $8,020,879,956 | 8.8% | 27.4% |
| 47 | Florida | $112,498,440,208 | $6,033,862,875 | 5.4% | $10,453,644,754 | 9.3% | $12,481,268,735 | 11.1% | 25.8% |
| 48 | Delaware | $10,607,772,962 | $861,079,602 | 8.1% | $1,222,535,571 | 11.5% | $543,724,529 | 5.1% | 24.8% |
| 49 | Maryland | $46,203,660,711 | $2,957,264,180 | 6.4% | $4,944,749,491 | 10.7% | $2,684,153,350 | 5.8% | 22.9% |
| 50 | New Jersey | $144,619,888,882 | $8,917,473,819 | 6.2% | $7,595,895,224 | 5.3% | $13,603,630,412 | 9.4% | 20.8% |
| 51 | Hawaii | $2,676,320,952 | $89,210,435 | 3.3% | $15,057,465 | 0.6% | $237,035,882 | 8.9% | 12.8% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of 2023 U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online data.
States most vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs
| R ank | State | Total exports | Exports to Canada | % of exports to Canada | Exports to Mexico | % of exports to Mexico | Exports to China | % of exports to China | % of exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Dakota | $8,778,755,519 | $7,171,721,773 | 81.7% | $539,275,564 | 6.1% | $32,624,617 | 0.4% | 88.2% |
| 2 | New Mexico | $4,956,743,133 | $187,807,522 | 3.8% | $3,460,928,243 | 69.8% | $261,859,184 | 5.3% | 78.9% |
| 3 | South Dakota | $2,401,318,978 | $1,067,122,649 | 44.4% | $508,746,000 | 21.2% | $147,289,270 | 6.1% | 71.8% |
| 4 | Michigan | $65,136,027,968 | $27,961,656,523 | 42.9% | $14,854,446,091 | 22.8% | $2,446,844,406 | 3.8% | 69.5% |
| 5 | Missouri | $17,879,411,331 | $6,545,402,156 | 36.6% | $3,872,535,353 | 21.7% | $594,050,108 | 3.3% | 61.6% |
| 6 | Ohio | $56,150,135,447 | $21,831,850,611 | 38.9% | $8,277,748,394 | 14.7% | $2,767,229,040 | 4.9% | 58.6% |
| 7 | Maine | $2,968,824,006 | $1,446,060,078 | 48.7% | $99,616,381 | 3.4% | $123,095,672 | 4.1% | 56.2% |
| 8 | Iowa | $18,400,012,066 | $5,505,718,355 | 29.9% | $3,240,559,264 | 17.6% | $1,121,832,416 | 6.1% | 53.6% |
| 9 | Montana | $2,237,060,812 | $1,020,492,232 | 45.6% | $61,344,333 | 2.7% | $111,968,281 | 5.0% | 53.4% |
| 10 | West Virginia | $5,669,478,424 | $2,157,393,057 | 38.1% | $246,334,764 | 4.3% | $528,389,059 | 9.3% | 51.7% |
| 11 | Wisconsin | $28,048,500,112 | $8,479,840,967 | 30.2% | $4,325,683,184 | 15.4% | $1,492,888,842 | 5.3% | 51.0% |
| 12 | Oregon | $27,743,741,273 | $3,492,102,583 | 12.6% | $6,567,614,362 | 23.7% | $4,031,600,733 | 14.5% | 50.8% |
| 13 | Minnesota | $24,936,385,512 | $7,047,770,874 | 28.3% | $3,337,511,714 | 13.4% | $2,166,166,763 | 8.7% | 50.3% |
| 14 | Indiana | $54,245,868,084 | $15,050,232,817 | 27.7% | $7,178,092,954 | 13.2% | $4,875,796,846 | 9.0% | 50.0% |
| 15 | Idaho | $4,006,284,456 | $1,496,138,719 | 37.3% | $284,160,495 | 7.1% | $180,575,905 | 4.5% | 48.9% |
| 16 | Illinois | $78,848,695,863 | $20,752,878,152 | 26.3% | $12,917,014,494 | 16.4% | $4,411,515,630 | 5.6% | 48.3% |
| 17 | Nebraska | $7,975,215,256 | $1,705,988,391 | 21.4% | $1,458,448,079 | 18.3% | $666,399,245 | 8.4% | 48.0% |
| 18 | Arkansas | $6,456,612,316 | $1,641,247,191 | 25.4% | $1,105,542,792 | 17.1% | $347,977,430 | 5.4% | 47.9% |
| 19 | Tennessee | $38,249,015,400 | $8,913,796,973 | 23.3% | $6,087,696,675 | 15.9% | $2,962,681,231 | 7.7% | 47.0% |
| 20 | Vermont | $1,994,093,237 | $683,052,499 | 34.3% | $84,850,741 | 4.3% | $150,359,566 | 7.5% | 46.0% |
| 21 | Kansas | $14,084,718,993 | $2,668,934,502 | 18.9% | $2,827,519,380 | 20.1% | $873,492,701 | 6.2% | 45.2% |
| 22 | North Carolina | $42,202,653,402 | $7,768,729,519 | 18.4% | $5,368,246,080 | 12.7% | $5,752,800,959 | 13.6% | 44.8% |
| 23 | Pennsylvania | $52,923,222,393 | $14,414,502,303 | 27.2% | $5,376,650,237 | 10.2% | $3,055,189,766 | 5.8% | 43.2% |
| 24 | Texas | $446,214,486,651 | $36,072,389,710 | 8.1% | $129,598,295,049 | 29.0% | $26,708,165,734 | 6.0% | 43.1% |
| 24 | Arizona | $28,877,141,893 | $2,850,275,769 | 9.9% | $7,979,086,390 | 27.6% | $1,602,566,123 | 5.5% | 43.1% |
| 26 | Colorado | $10,400,581,792 | $1,866,268,202 | 17.9% | $1,606,019,235 | 15.4% | $894,975,341 | 8.6% | 42.0% |
| 27 | Oklahoma | $6,512,895,755 | $1,872,474,192 | 28.8% | $629,343,561 | 9.7% | $221,003,684 | 3.4% | 41.8% |
| 28 | Alabama | $27,440,371,181 | $4,011,283,420 | 14.6% | $3,184,119,458 | 11.6% | $3,741,686,859 | 13.6% | 39.9% |
| 29 | Washington | $61,068,509,409 | $9,622,724,752 | 15.8% | $3,510,656,253 | 5.7% | $10,906,358,464 | 17.9% | 39.4% |
| 30 | Kentucky | $40,246,210,071 | $9,181,735,321 | 22.8% | $3,733,124,103 | 9.3% | $2,858,076,458 | 7.1% | 39.2% |
| 31 | California | $178,843,557,985 | $19,386,319,639 | 10.8% | $33,254,455,584 | 18.6% | $16,865,626,251 | 9.4% | 38.9% |
| 32 | Nevada | $9,538,256,441 | $1,937,098,006 | 20.3% | $853,314,385 | 8.9% | $787,021,025 | 8.3% | 37.5% |
| 33 | Mississippi | $14,221,553,667 | $2,210,670,987 | 15.5% | $1,958,790,933 | 13.8% | $777,670,009 | 5.5% | 34.8% |
| 34 | Alaska | $5,263,866,093 | $596,357,960 | 11.3% | $46,877,436 | 0.9% | $1,169,280,917 | 22.2% | 34.4% |
| 35 | Georgia | $49,905,561,115 | $7,834,942,749 | 15.7% | $4,881,204,606 | 9.8% | $3,930,353,814 | 7.9% | 33.4% |
| 36 | New Jersey | $43,265,664,961 | $8,793,687,204 | 20.3% | $3,263,947,973 | 7.5% | $2,280,283,140 | 5.3% | 33.1% |
| 37 | Delaware | $4,936,010,417 | $868,336,424 | 17.6% | $333,197,829 | 6.8% | $416,822,239 | 8.4% | 32.8% |
| 38 | New Hampshire | $7,619,508,510 | $1,441,356,539 | 18.9% | $698,628,171 | 9.2% | $349,964,199 | 4.6% | 32.7% |
| 39 | South Carolina | $37,343,436,318 | $4,559,351,491 | 12.2% | $3,038,491,479 | 8.1% | $3,880,223,370 | 10.4% | 30.7% |
| 40 | Virginia | $22,472,329,389 | $3,562,495,462 | 15.9% | $1,236,844,957 | 5.5% | $1,975,347,763 | 8.8% | 30.1% |
| 41 | New York | $100,055,116,293 | $21,740,747,912 | 21.7% | $3,482,073,915 | 3.5% | $3,838,184,645 | 3.8% | 29.0% |
| 42 | Rhode Island | $3,012,042,764 | $488,629,281 | 16.2% | $220,293,318 | 7.3% | $93,809,292 | 3.1% | 26.7% |
| 43 | Massachusetts | $35,300,255,137 | $3,320,119,464 | 9.4% | $2,736,760,615 | 7.8% | $3,324,991,943 | 9.4% | 26.6% |
| 44 | Connecticut | $15,846,199,458 | $2,117,446,509 | 13.4% | $1,074,246,319 | 6.8% | $989,639,938 | 6.2% | 26.4% |
| 45 | Louisiana | $99,370,630,481 | $4,798,725,005 | 4.8% | $7,017,550,767 | 7.1% | $13,935,755,898 | 14.0% | 25.9% |
| 46 | Wyoming | $2,150,114,675 | $380,630,182 | 17.7% | $66,613,912 | 3.1% | $85,047,650 | 4.0% | 24.8% |
| 47 | Utah | $17,369,660,304 | $1,709,128,110 | 9.8% | $1,351,310,233 | 7.8% | $1,220,401,855 | 7.0% | 24.6% |
| 48 | Maryland | $18,451,761,758 | $2,381,534,895 | 12.9% | $524,503,313 | 2.8% | $1,019,330,990 | 5.5% | 21.3% |
| 49 | Florida | $68,907,896,543 | $5,225,686,108 | 7.6% | $4,253,762,626 | 6.2% | $1,658,874,309 | 2.4% | 16.2% |
| 50 | Hawaii | $571,587,147 | $16,009,400 | 2.8% | $2,678,352 | 0.5% | $15,503,623 | 2.7% | 6.0% |
| 51 | Dist of Columbia | $1,746,414,447 | $4,345,562 | 0.2% | $7,645,120 | 0.4% | $844,434 | 0.0% | 0.7% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of 2023 U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online data.
Nearly 3 in 4 Americans believe tariffs will cause prices to rise
More Americans think tariffs will impact their finances negatively
How to prepare your wallet for possible tariff impact: 6 tips
What should you do? There are so many unknowns and so much uncertainty surrounding tariffs that it’s easy — and understandable — to feel overwhelmed.
However, it’s important to understand you’re not powerless. No matter where you live, you can do the following to help yourself be more prepared for whatever comes:
- Make paying off high-interest debt a short-term priority. This is easier said than done, but it’s important. Money you have to put toward paying down credit card debt or other high-interest debt is money that can’t go toward putting food on the table, building an emergency fund or reaching other financial goals. It’s also money that can’t be used to offset rising prices. Using a 0% balance transfer credit card or low-interest personal loan to consolidate those debts and lower the interest you pay can be a huge first step.
- Keep building that emergency fund. Yes, even as you pay down that debt, you still need to grow your savings. It may take a little longer and cost a little more to pay off that debt, but once you’ve paid it off, having some savings can help you avoid going right back into debt.
- Stick with your long-term goals. Regardless of whether tariffs are implemented, your goals are still your goals. You still need to invest in your retirement. You still may need to save money to buy a home, pay for your kid’s college education or pay for a wedding. You still may want to start a small business. These things still matter, so don’t let uncertainty around tariffs keep you from focusing on them.
- Don’t be afraid to seek help. Dealing with financial uncertainty is easier when you’re not doing it by yourself, and plenty of people and organizations want to help. Depending on your circumstances, a financial advisor or accredited nonprofit credit counselor might be just the thing. Others may lean on religious groups or organizations geared toward helping people through tough times. Others might lean on family or trusted friends for support — financially, emotionally or otherwise.
- Breathe. Stressful and uncertain financial times aren’t just hard on our wallets. They’re hard on our physical and mental health, too, so be good to yourself. Make time for whatever healthy habits you have to manage stress. Just taking a few minutes every so often to decompress can make a huge difference.
- Speak up. Whether you think tariffs are horrible or brilliant, let your elected representatives know. Our voices matter.
No one knows what the next few months and years hold when it comes to tariffs, much less for the economy as a whole. The smartest thing you can do is prepare yourself for the worst while hoping for the best. That way, you’ll be as ready as you can be for whatever is next.
Methodology
LendingTree analysts utilized 2023 U.S. Census Bureau USA Trade Online data to compare imports and exports from and to Canada, Mexico and China. Specifically, we compared imports and exports to and from those countries to each state’s total imports and exports. We ranked the states based on the highest percentage of imports and exports from these countries.
Additionally, LendingTree commissioned QuestionPro to conduct an online survey of 1,999 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79 from Feb. 4 to 5, 2025. The survey was administered using a nonprobability-based sample, and quotas were used to ensure the sample base represented the overall population. Researchers reviewed all responses for quality control.
We defined generations as the following ages in 2025:
- Generation Z: 18 to 28
- Millennial: 29 to 44
- Generation X: 45 to 60
- Baby boomer: 61 to 79