Consumers Pay Up to 92% More for Pumpkin Items, but ‘Pumpkin Spice Tax’ Is Narrowing

Fall’s flavor can come at a high cost.

According to the latest LendingTree study, pumpkin-flavored products cost an average of 7.4% more than their nonpumpkin alternatives. That’s a “latte” dough, but fall fanatics don’t need to fret.

After going over which products have the biggest “pumpkin spice tax,” we’ll discuss how to make room in your budget for pumpkin-flavored products.

Key findings

• On average, pumpkin-flavored products cost 7.4% more than their nonpumpkin alternatives. This is the lowest pumpkin spice tax in the history of our study, below 14.1% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2020. We evaluated 116 grocery store and coffee retailer products, from protein bars to granola to scented candles to lattes (yes, PSLs).
• Trail mix has the largest gap in pumpkin and nonpumpkin pricing. Target Favorite Day monster trail mix costs $4.00 for 14 ounces, or $0.29 per ounce. Meanwhile, the Favorite Day pumpkin spice trail mix costs $5.49 for 10 ounces, or $0.55 per ounce. That’s a 92.2% difference, with the next closest nearly 36 percentage points lower.
• West Virginians are the most festive about pumpkin spice. Google Trends data for the past five years shows pumpkin spice searches are most popular among West Virginians, ahead of Ohioans and Utahans.
• Pumpkin spice fever picks up at the end of August. Our analysis of Google Trends data for pumpkin spice shows searches peaked around the last week in August five years in a row. In those five years, consumers showed the most pumpkin spice intrigue the week of Aug. 20-26, 2023.

Consumers paying smaller ‘pumpkin spice tax’ than before

Pumpkin spice is making wallets feel the chill.

Across all products analyzed, we found that pumpkin products cost an average of 7.4% more than their nonpumpkin alternatives. Comparatively, the pumpkin spice tax was 14.1% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2020 — making this year’s tax the lowest in the history of our study.

‘Pumpkin spice tax’ over time

Source: LendingTree and MagnifyMoney studies on the costs of pumpkin and nonpumpkin items.

We evaluated 116 grocery store and coffee retailer products this year. That’s more than in our prior editions (80 in 2022 and 106 in 2020).

Of note, food prices have generally been rising for some time. According to another LendingTree study on food prices, the cost of a typical basket of groceries is 3.1% higher than three months ago and 2.0% higher than a year ago. That’s reflected here as well: A coffee frappuccino at Starbucks is $6.25, while it was $5.45 when we conducted this study in 2022. A pumpkin spice frappuccino is now $6.75, while it was $6.25 in 2022.

According to Matt Schulz — LendingTree chief credit analyst and author of “Ask Questions, Save Money, Make More: How to Take Control of Your Financial Life” — those prices certainly might make people think twice about indulging in their love of all things pumpkin.

“Even though inflation has slowed overall, prices are still really high, squeezing people’s budgets and forcing them to prioritize their spending,” he says. “For some people, paying more for pumpkin-flavored items might be a bridge too far.”

Consumers pay up to 92.2% more for pumpkin products

Which analyzed product has the highest seasonal surcharge? Target has the biggest offender: Its Favorite Day monster trail mix costs $4.00 for 14 ounces — $0.29 per ounce. On the other hand, the Favorite Day pumpkin spice trail mix costs $5.49 for 10 ounces — $0.55 per ounce. That means you’re paying 92.2% more for the pumpkin spice product.

Target’s Chobani oat milk follows. While the original oat milk costs $0.11 per ounce, the pumpkin spice oat milk costs $0.17 per ounce, a markup of 56.6%.

However, it’s worth noting that Target pumpkin spice products are generally fairly well priced compared to their nonpumpkin alternatives. In fact, six of the 10 products with the biggest negative pumpkin spice tax are at Target (more on that below).

According to Schulz, those differences mean it’s important to consider all options when shopping.

On the other end of the list, Trader Joe’s cookie mix has the biggest negative pumpkin spice tax. While you’ll pay $3.99 for the pumpkin and spice snickerdoodle cookie mix (or $0.23 an ounce), you’ll pay $4.49 for the everything but the kitchen sink cookie mix (or $0.30 an ounce). That means the pumpkin spice version costs almost a quarter (24.1%) less than the regular one.

Following that, Target’s Chobani pumpkin spice coffee creamer costs 14.7% less than the vanilla coffee creamer.

Full rankings

Pumpkin spice tax by product (high to low)

Source: LendingTree analysis of prices and sizes on 116 grocery store and coffee retailer products.

West Virginians most excited about pumpkin spice season

As for where consumers are most looking forward to pumpkin spice, West Virginia tops the list. Google Trends data reveals that related searches over the past five years have been most popular here.

Ohio and Utah have the next highest interest in pumpkin spice. All three states have a beautiful start to the holiday season, boasting colorful fall foliage. Residents in these states might just enjoy a PSL while peeping at the fall foliage.

Separately, West Virginians are most likely to purchase pumpkin spice products per capita, according to a 2021 Instacart study.

Conversely, Mississippi is the least interested in pumpkin spice. That’s followed by fellow Southern states Louisiana and Alabama.

Full rankings

States with the most pumpkin spice Google search activity

Source: LendingTree analysis of Google Trends data. Note: Figures are indexed to 100 based on the state with the highest relative Google search traffic for the term during the period analyzed.

Consumers consider pumpkin spice at end of August

The urge to splurge on pumpkin spice spikes at the end of August, according to our analysis of Google Trends search data. Over the past five years, searches for pumpkin spice have peaked around the last week in August.

That’s about in line with most pumpkin spice releases. Historically, Starbucks has released its pumpkin spice products around the last week of August or the first week of September. Other retailers typically follow suit.

Overall, consumers showed the most pumpkin spice intrigue the week of Aug. 20-26, 2023. Just behind, the week of Aug. 18-24, 2024, had the second most search interest.

That may be because some retailers are slowly pushing pumpkin products earlier and earlier, which could pique consumers’ interest. According to data from SpotOn, 602 pumpkin-flavored items were added to restaurant menus in the U.S. between July 8 and Aug. 7, 2023. Between May 15 and July 15, 2024, restaurants added 482 pumpkin items to menus.

Pumpkin spice at lower price: Expert tips on managing PSL budget

All that sugar and spice isn’t so nice on the budget, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have your holiday treats. To help incorporate the pumpkin spice tax into your budget, Schulz recommends:

• Get your priorities in order. “As much as we love pumpkin-flavored items, rising prices aren’t to be ignored,” he says. “If your budget has tightened as inflation has taken hold over the last few years, know that you might have to consider holding back a bit. You could also consider consolidating your debts with a low-interest personal loan. That can reduce the amount of interest you pay each month on your debts, allowing you to pay them down a little bit faster and maybe even free up an extra few bucks to splurge on a pumpkin spice treat now and then.”
• DIY it. “Getting your pumpkin fix doesn’t always mean restaurants and coffee shops,” Schulz says. “Bake your own pumpkin bread. Make your own pumpkin-flavored coffee at home. Even though the prices of these things in the stores are still more expensive than in previous years, it’s often a whole lot better than what you’ll pay at your favorite bakery or coffee shop.”
• Keep an eye on discounts and rewards. Having a loyalty card or store credit card may come in handy here. For example, if you’re a Starbucks PSL fanatic, keep an eye out for triple star days — these points can be exchanged for discounts or free items.

Methodology

LendingTree researchers gathered prices and sizes on 116 grocery store and coffee retailer products to estimate the average “pumpkin spice tax.” We collected this data on 58 pumpkin and 58 nonpumpkin products to evaluate how retailers price pumpkin-flavored items.

We compared the products by price per ounce to control for different sizes. (We compared by price per item when relevant.)

This involved a mix of online shopping and in-store browsing between Sept. 3 and 9, 2024. We gathered data from the following nine grocery store and coffee retailers:

• Amazon (via Whole Foods)
• Blank Street Coffee
• Dunkin’
• McDonald’s
• Starbucks
• Target
• Trader Joe’s
• Walmart
• Whole Foods

Because retailer prices vary across the country, we focused on pricing in the following Brooklyn, N.Y., ZIP codes:

• 11217
• 11201
• 11215

For Walmart, we used pricing for the closest Walmart to Brooklyn — 07002. Lastly, we compiled Trader Joe’s prices at a Charlotte, N.C., location (28204 ZIP code). LendingTree’s headquarters are in Charlotte.

Researchers also analyzed Google Trends search data to determine when and where pumpkin spice is most popular.