Mortgage Rate Predictions for January: When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2026?
The current mortgage interest rates forecast predicts mortgage rates will remain elevated compared to where they stood pre-pandemic, potentially dropping below 6% temporarily throughout the coming year.
Mortgage rates fell significantly over the course of 2025, reaching their lowest point (6.15%) on New Year’s Eve. The Federal Reserve made three cuts last year, but our expert doesn’t expect to see another at its first meeting of 2026 on Jan. 27-28.
Despite rates’ overall downward trend last year, home affordability remains a concern with experts predicting that high rates and low affordability will keep the housing market sluggish.
Mortgage rates forecast for January 2026: Will interest rates continue to drop?
The short answer: Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain elevated in January — more than double the 2021 lows of around 2.65% — although gradual decreases should show up and could push rates under 6.0% by the end of the year.
Current mortgage rates for January 2026
are averaging:
6.11%
Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners over the past seven days for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.are averaging:
5.22%
Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners over the past seven days for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.National average rates dropped slightly after the Fed’s last cut and ended 2025 at 6.15%, but experts don’t anticipate significant declines over the first several months of 2026. Fannie Mae, for example, expects average 30-year mortgage rates to close the first quarter of 2026 at approximately 6.2%. Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, agrees that we should expect “slow, gradual decline.”
Even if mortgage rates do manage to dip below 6% this year, it’s almost certain they’ll remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%. Those record lows, as nice as they were, might not ever be seen again in our lifetimes.
Rates have fallen by over a half-point since June and even more than that since last January, and that’s a big deal. For example, on a $500,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 7% with a 10% down payment, you’d pay $3,895 per month. Drop that rate to 6.20% and your payment falls to $3,657. That’s a difference of $238 per month, which can be really significant to the average American family who is on a tight budget.
Will home affordability improve in January?
The short answer: Slightly, but not dramatically. January’s seasonal advantages and slight rate drops may help some buyers, but the combination of elevated rates (above 6%) and high home prices means affordability remains tough for most Americans.
Here’s more detail about what’s happening with prices, rates and the housing market, and what it all means for buyers this month:
What’s happening with mortgage rates
Just six weeks after its first cut of the year, the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee cut the federal funds rate for a second time and a final cut is likely at the December meeting.
- Rate cuts affect adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) directly, and fixed-rate mortgages indirectly.
- Falling mortgage rates can spark rising home prices and, if rates do fall, whether the balance will tip toward increased affordability or a troublingly hot housing market remains to be seen.
- Some Fed committee members have expressed their desire to move cautiously, but other members — notably Stephen Miran — are calling for aggressive cuts.
What’s happening with home prices
Historically, January is the cheapest month of the year to buy a home.
The median price per square foot in January 2024
vs. $194 per square foot in May 2024, the priciest month that year
The amount you would have saved by purchasing in January instead of May 2024
What’s happening with housing inventory
More homes are coming on the market, which could mean some small price breaks are on the horizon:
- Inventory rose 7.8% between November 2024 and November 2025.
- However, more than 80% of homeowners are locked into rates below 6% As of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency and reluctant to sell. This “mortgage rate lock-in effect” continues to limit supply.
Still, home affordability remains low
Although affordability has improved over the last six months, it remains a struggle for most Americans. The income needed to qualify for a median-priced home exceeded $104,000 per year as of April 2025 — double what it was in 2019. That’s why only 13% of renters can afford to buy a home, according to a report by CBRE, a real estate investing company.
The numbers paint a stark picture of this affordability crisis:
Of metro areas saw price increases in Q3 2025 Source: National Association of Realtors “Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability and Housing Affordability Index”
Median home price (↑12% versus last year) Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States [MSPUS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS, Dec. 31, 2025.
Median monthly mortgage payment As of November 2025, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association report.
What’s happening with mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates at its first meeting of the year, according to Schulz. But, even if it did, rates won’t necessarily go down.
- Rate cuts affect adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) directly, and fixed-rate mortgages indirectly.
- Falling mortgage rates can spark rising home prices and, if rates do fall, whether the balance will tip toward increased affordability or a troublingly hot housing market remains to be seen.
- The Fed may adopt a more aggressive strategy this year than it did last year, in part because a new chairperson will take over this summer.
Don’t wait for perfect conditions. Focus on what you can afford now, shop multiple lenders for the best rate, and take advantage of January’s seasonal pricing benefits if you’re ready to buy. Schulz urges homebuyers to negotiate their mortgage rates and fees — especially in the current season.
There can be advantages to shopping in the wintertime,” Schulz notes. “There may be less inventory on the market during the winter months, but those who are selling might be more willing to negotiate because there may be fewer people looking to buy. Even a fraction of a point difference on an interest rate can save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage.
Should you refinance in January 2026?
Homeowners looking to refinance are finally catching a break. Refinance applications have surged as rates have been dropping, making it worthwhile for more people to consider refinancing.
Refinance volume versus last year As of the week ending Dec. 19, 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly mortgage applications survey.
Of mortgage applications are refinances As of the week of Dec. 19, 2025, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly mortgage applications survey.
Current refinance rates for January 2026
30-year Refinance Rates
are averaging:
6.42%
Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners over the past seven days for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.15-year Refinance Rates
are averaging:
5.93%
Current average rates are calculated using all conditional loan offers presented to consumers nationwide by LendingTree’s network partners over the past seven days for each combination of loan program, loan term and loan amount. Rates and other loan terms are subject to lender approval and not guaranteed. Not all consumers may qualify. See LendingTree’s Terms of Use for more details.Expert advice on when to refinance
It’s typically smart to hold off on a refinance until you can qualify for a rate that’s at least 50 basis points Basis points are units used to measure changes in interest rates. One hundred basis points are equal to 1 percentage point, so 50 basis points are equal to 0.50%. lower than the one you already have — and ideally 75 to 100 basis points lower.
No matter the market conditions, homeowners should always know exactly what benefit they’ll get out of a refinance before committing to one. For example, if you’re refinancing an ARM to a fixed-rate loan, tapping your equity with a cash-out refinance or getting a new interest rate that will lower your mortgage payments.
Does refinancing make sense for you?
| Your current rate | Recommendation | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Below 6.15% | Wait | You already have an excellent rate. Refinancing now would likely increase your rate, not lower it. |
| 6.20% to 6.65% | Compare offers, but gains will be modest | You’re in the same range as current refinance rates. You might save $50 to $100/month depending on your loan size, but closing costs could take several years to recoup. |
| 6.70% to 6.90% or higher | Refinance now | You could save significantly by refinancing. This is the sweet spot where the rate difference (at least 50 basis points) makes refinancing worthwhile despite closing costs. |
Special circumstances
Even if your rate is lower than 6.15%, refinancing might make sense in these situations:
- Converting an ARM to a fixed-rate loan. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage that’s about to reset or you want payment stability, refinancing to a fixed rate locks in predictability even if the rate is slightly higher than your current ARM.
- Cash-out refinance. Need funds for home improvements, debt consolidation or other major expenses? A cash-out refinance lets you tap your home equity. Just ensure the new rate and payment still fit your budget.
- Shortening your loan term. Moving from a 30-year to 15-year mortgage means higher monthly payments but significantly less interest over the life of the loan.
- Financial emergency. If you’re facing financial hardship and even modest savings would make a real difference in your monthly budget, don’t wait for perfect conditions. Act on savings you can achieve now.
“The truth is that there’s no one-size-fits-all answer for when it is best to refinance, Schulz says. “Weigh how the savings you could achieve in the current market will affect you. That said, I think that rates will fall below 6% in 2026, though they may not stay there for very long. Americans love round numbers, and I suspect that there are many who are waiting for rates to fall below 6% but will jump in to refinance once rates fall below that level.”
How to get the best mortgage rates
1. Boost your credit score
Pay your bills on time, minimize your credit card balances and avoid opening several new credit accounts at once. You’ll get some of the best conventional mortgage rates with a 780 credit score or higher.
Learn more about ways to boost your credit score.
2. Compare rates from multiple lenders
LendingTree data consistently show that consumers who shop around for mortgage rates typically save money. Get a loan estimate from three to five different mortgage lenders and compare the rates and terms you’re offered.
Learn more about our picks for the best mortgage lenders.
3. Consider paying points
A mortgage point costs 1% of your loan amount, and paying for points allows you to “buy” a cheaper interest rate. Read the fine print if you see an online rate that looks lower than what other lenders are offering — there’s a good chance you’ll pay points to get it.
Ready to see competitive rate offers on LendingTree?
Frequently asked questions
If you can afford a mortgage and find a home that suits your needs, now can be a good time to buy, despite high rates and a limited number of homes for sale.
Timing the market is extremely difficult, if not outright impossible. So if you’re waiting to make a choice based on what you hope will happen instead of what’s already going on, you could end up missing out on a lot of good opportunities — even in today’s expensive housing market.
Mortgage rates are unlikely to go down to 4% in 2026. LendingTree’s experts predict rates could drop below the 6% threshold — but likely only temporarily — during 2026.
It’s impossible to say for certain, but our market experts aren’t expecting rates anywhere near 3% for the foreseeable future. In general, experts seem to agree that rates will hover between 6% and 7% for most of the next few years. You may catch rates falling below 6% this year, but don’t expect it to last very long.
You can expect to pay around $3,186 per month for a $400,000 mortgage loan near today’s average rates if you take out a 30-year loan. Of course, the exact amount will change depending on your financial profile and the market conditions when you take out your loan.
Although President Trump has promised to lower interest rates, the reality is that a president can’t unilaterally change interest rates. Interest rates are determined by several factors, including the financial markets and the Federal Reserve — not executive orders or presidential decisions.
Mortgage rates are even more complex, and respond to additional factors like the cost of building materials, employment rates and housing inventory.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directly affects adjustable-rate mortgages, since their interest rates are calculated using a number — known as an index — that fluctuates with the broader economy. (The Fed’s cuts are to the federal funds rate, which is a benchmark index.) That includes ARMs, credit cards and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
The Fed’s rate cuts indirectly impact fixed-rate mortgages, which can move more independently and, in some cases, can even move in the opposite direction of the federal funds rate. That said, when the federal funds rate drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. They can also drop in anticipation of a federal funds rate cut, as they did just before the Fed’s September 2024 rate cut.
For the first time since 1989, buying an existing home costs more than buying a newly constructed home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The median price of a new home is $41,670 lower than the price of an existing home, according to a Realtor.com report looking at the third quarter of 2025. The report also found that buyers of newly constructed homes tend to get lower interest rates.
Explore whether it’s better to rent or buy in today’s market.
“There’s no reason to think that the housing market is going to crash anytime soon,” Schulz says. Low unemployment and foreclosure rates, as well as a moderate housing inventory increase are all signs that the housing market is relatively healthy, he adds.
And, if you’re thinking a housing market crash could even bring some benefits — like lower home prices — he offers this reminder: “These things don’t happen in a vacuum. A housing market crash very well might be accompanied by a recession, for example. That would likely mean increased unemployment and greater overall economic uncertainty, leaving people even less able to afford to buy.”
So far, mortgage interest rates have dropped slightly since President Trump’s tariffs went into effect. However, many economists believe that the tariffs have already begun to create inflationary pressure, which could eventually push up mortgage interest rates.
A mortgage interest rate is the base rate you’re charged to borrow money, but a mortgage annual percentage rate (APR) is the total cost of taking out a mortgage (the interest rate plus closing costs and fees). Both numbers are expressed as a percentage. For more details, check out our guide to distinguishing an APR versus interest rate.
Mortgage rates dropped to a historical low of 2.65% in January 2021, when the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to 0% to stabilize the post-pandemic economy.
Haggle for a lower interest rate by using your mortgage offers as leverage. Ask each lender about matching your lowest quoted rate. Consider making a larger down payment, select an ARM loan with a lower initial rate or ask your lender about your mortgage buydown options.
Discuss mortgage rate lock options with your loan officer once you’re under contract on a home and moving through the application process. Rate locks usually last between 30 and 60 days, but they can be longer. Watch your expiration date — you may face a rate lock extension fee if your loan doesn’t close before your rate lock expires.
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