Wildfire Risk Highest in California, Florida, Texas

As climate change fuels hotter, drier conditions, homeowners and insurers may be playing with fire.

According to the latest LendingTree study, wildfires are up 17.0% annually — and while risk varies by state, expected annual losses reach upward of $1.4 billion.

After reviewing our findings, read how homeowners insurance can help mitigate financial losses from wildfires.

Key findings

• California, Florida and Texas have the highest wildfire risk. California leads by a large margin, with expected annual losses from wildfires totaling $1.4 billion. Florida and Texas are next at $269.3 million and $240.3 million, respectively, while Arizona ($195.3 million) and Utah ($191.3 million) round out the top five. These are the only five states to receive at least a “relatively high” rating for their expected annual losses from wildfires, with California being the only one rated as “very high.”
• Texas has the highest expected annual economic losses due to wildfire casualties and injuries, at $11.1 million. Texas is the only state above $10.0 million, with Montana ($8.2 million) and California ($5.1 million) finishing second and third. Sixteen states have more than $1.0 million in expected annual economic losses due to wildfire casualties and injuries.
• Wyoming and Montana are the only states where at least 50% of buildings are at risk of wildfires. 54% of buildings in Wyoming and 51% in Montana are at risk of wildfires. Texas (45%), Oklahoma (44%) and New Mexico (43%) follow as the only other states with 40% or more of their buildings facing wildfire risk.
• Nationally, wildfires are up 17.0% annually. Wildfires increased from 58,968 in 2021 to 68,988 in 2022. By state, Arkansas experienced the biggest increase, at a significant 403.4%. Alabama (160.6%) and Connecticut (150.0%) followed. Five other states experienced an increase of at least 100.0% in wildfires during this period.
• Historically, California has seen the most damage and the highest number of billion-dollar wildfires. From 1980 to 2024, California has seen $99.6 billion in damage from billion-dollar wildfires — more than two-thirds of the nation’s damage. Additionally, California experienced the highest number of billion-dollar wildfires in this period, at 19.

California, by wide margin, has highest wildfire risk

California has the highest wildfire risk, with total expected annual losses from wildfires at $1.4 billion — the only state to surpass $1.0 billion.

California’s dry climate, hot weather, vegetation and wind patterns have historically affected its wildfire risk. In recent years, droughts and human error have exacerbated conditions.

Florida ($269.3 million) and Texas ($240.3 million) rank second and third. Like California, Florida has dry periods and vegetation that increase fire risk. Additionally, thunderstorms in Florida increase the risk of lightning-induced fires. Texas also suffers from droughts and dry conditions, contributing to its wildfire risk.

States with the highest expected annual losses from wildfires

Source: LendingTree analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Risk Index (NRI) data. Note: Expected annual losses from wildfires are the sum of expected annual losses in building value, population equivalence and agricultural value.

Arizona and Utah round out the top five, at $195.3 million and $191.3 million, respectively.

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Risk Index (NRI), these are the only five states to receive at least a “relatively high” rating for their expected annual losses from wildfires, with California being the only one rated as “very high.” This rating represents a state’s relative risk for wildfires compared to the rest of the country.

According to LendingTree home insurance expert and licensed insurance agent Rob Bhatt, wildfire risk has major insurance implications.

Full rankings

Expected annual losses from wildfires (by state)

Source: LendingTree analysis of FEMA NRI data. Note: Expected annual losses from wildfires are the sum of expected annual losses in building value, population equivalence and agricultural value.

Annual economic losses due to casualties/injuries highest in Texas

Looking solely at economic losses, Texas has the highest expected annual losses due to casualties and injuries from wildfires, at a projected $11.1 million. That makes it the only state above $10.0 million. (According to AZPM, wildfire smoke inhalation is rarely listed as the primary cause of death or a contributing factor, which can limit wildfire-related casualty figures.)

Population growth and density play a role here. Between 2020 and 2023, Texas’ population grew by 1.6 million to 30.3 million. Most of this growth is concentrated in the Texas triangle (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin), where 68% of the state’s population lives. With such high population density in these areas, the potential for wildfire casualties and injuries grows.

Montana follows, at $8.2 million. While Montana has a much lower population density than the top-ranking states, its large rural areas that include grasslands and shrublands make it particularly susceptible to wildfires, increasing the risk of casualties and injuries.

States with the highest expected annual economic losses due to casualties/injuries from wildfires

Source: LendingTree analysis of FEMA NRI data. Note: Using this metric, one fatality or 10 injuries equals $11.6 million.

California ($5.1 million) is third. Like Texas, California has a dense population that increases the risk of casualties and injuries. With a population of nearly 39 million and more than 25% living in high fire-risk areas, California has a significant number of people living in wildfire-prone areas.

Overall, 16 states have more than $1.0 million in expected annual economic losses due to wildfire casualties and injuries.

Conversely, the District of Columbia ($266) has the lowest expected annual economic losses by a wide margin, followed by Rhode Island ($6,648) and Connecticut ($13,063).

Full rankings

Expected annual economic losses due to casualties/injuries from wildfires (by state)

Source: LendingTree analysis of FEMA NRI data. Note: Using this metric, one fatality or 10 injuries equals $11.6 million.

2 Northwestern states have highest percentage of buildings at risk

If you’re looking to avoid states with high percentages of buildings at risk of wildfires, don’t head northwest. In Wyoming and Montana, 54% and 51% of buildings, respectively, are at risk of wildfires — making them the only two with more than half at risk.

Growth in areas with high wildfire risk plays a role here. In Wyoming, residents are expanding into wildland urban interface (WUI) areas, where human development meets natural terrain and thick vegetation. This increase in building on undeveloped land increases fire risk. In the state, 48% of buildings (the highest among the 13 states tracked) are at low-to-moderate risk and 6% are at high-to-extreme risk.

Meanwhile, according to a Headwaters Economics report, the number of Montana homes in moderate and high wildfire risk areas nearly doubled between 1990 and 2018 — meaning more than a third of homes are now at risk. In the state, 39% of buildings are at low-to-moderate risk and 12% (the highest across the 13 states) are at high-to-extreme risk.

% of buildings with low-to-extreme wildfire risk by state

Source: LendingTree analysis of Verisk Wildfire Risk Analysis data. Note: This includes the 13 most wildfire-prone states as determined by Verisk.

Just three other states had 40% or more of their buildings facing wildfire risk: Texas (45%), Oklahoma (44%) and New Mexico (43%). Of these states, New Mexico has the highest percentage of buildings at high-to-extreme risk, at 9%.

According to Bhatt, each wildfire that impacts homes also impacts insurance.

“Not all wildfires impact homes, but those that do are roiling the industry,” he says. “Wildfires have increased the amounts insurance companies have had to pay out to rebuild homes. This, in turn, has led to higher rates for many customers in surrounding areas that wildfires haven’t impacted. The growing wildfire risk also has insurance companies pulling out of neighborhoods with the highest risks. This is making it harder for homeowners in these affected areas to find affordable home insurance.”

Wildfires have risen 17.0% annually

Not only are some states significantly at risk of wildfires — the number of wildfires is rising. In fact, wildfires are up 17.0% annually across the nation. Breaking that down, there were 58,968 in 2021 and 68,988 in 2022.

By state, Arkansas experienced the biggest jump, with wildfires growing by 403.4% — much higher than any other state. While there were 378 wildfires in 2021, that grew to 1,903 in 2022. After several wet seasons, Arkansas experienced a dry spell in the summer of 2022, drying out leaves and making trees more ignitable. With that dry spell continuing into fall, a period of high winds meant ignited fires spread more easily, leading to nearly 2,000 acres burned across 21 fires in a single weekend.

Alabama (160.6%) and Connecticut (150.0%) ranked second and third, respectively.

States with the highest percentage change in wildfires

Source: LendingTree analysis of Insurance Information Institute (III) data.

Five other states experienced an increase of at least 100.0% in wildfires during the time span: Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi and Massachusetts.

Conversely, 24 states saw a decrease in wildfires in the same period. South Carolina (96.5%) led here, with the number of wildfires falling from 630 to 22. That’s followed by Iowa (96.3%) and Missouri (91.1%).

Full rankings

Percentage change in wildfires (by state)

Source: LendingTree analysis of III data. Note: Delaware, the District of Columbia and Hawaii weren’t included due to limited sample sizes.

California has had most billion-dollar damage, wildfires

Isolating our focus to billion-dollar wildfires, California once again ranks highest. Between 1980 and 2024, California experienced $99.6 billion in billion-dollar wildfire damage — more than two-thirds of the U.S. total of $145.6 billion over the same time span.

That can be largely attributed to California experiencing the highest number of billion-dollar wildfires in this period, at 19.

While Bhatt says California has always been susceptible to wildfires, the high number of billion-dollar wildfires is alarming.

States with the highest total estimated damage from billion-dollar wildfires, 1980 to 2024

Source: LendingTree analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data.

Colorado ranks second, with $7.2 billion in damage from 12 billion-dollar wildfires. Oregon rounds out the top three, with $5.9 billion in damage from 16 billion-dollar wildfires.

Full rankings

Total estimated damage from billion-dollar wildfires by state, 1980 to 2024

Source: LendingTree analysis of NOAA NCEI data. Note: States not included had no billion-dollar wildfire damage over the time span analyzed.

Preparing for wildfires: Top tips for homeowners

As wildfires increase in number and intensity, most Americans are exposed to some risk. And they’re not something to be taken lightly. In fact, Bhatt recommends everyone in risky areas have a go bag ready and an evacuation plan to keep them and their families safe.

Not only should you physically prepare yourself, but you should financially protect yourself. Bhatt recommends:

• Make sure your homeowners policy has enough dwelling coverage to rebuild your home. “Increasing your dwelling limit usually makes your insurance rate go up a little,” he says. “However, if your home is impacted by a wildfire or other disaster, having enough coverage can save you a lot.”
• Make sure you have an updated home inventory handy. “This is an itemized list of your possessions and their value,” he says. “You want to store it electronically in the cloud or in a safe physical location that you can access during a disaster. Having an updated home inventory handy can help you get your insurance check faster, because it allows you to quickly document your losses to your insurance company.”
• Consider disaster coverage. According to an earlier LendingTree study, up to 1 in 5 properties don’t have disaster coverage, which can provide additional coverage after a wildfire.

Methodology

LendingTree researchers first analyzed Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Risk Index (NRI) wildfire data. Researchers summed the expected annual losses in the following categories to find the states with the biggest wildfire risk:

• Building value
• Population equivalence
• Agricultural value

Additionally, we used Verisk Wildfire Risk Analysis 2022 data to rank the most wildfire-prone states by the percentage of buildings with a low-to-extreme wildfire risk. We also included data for acres burned.

Using Insurance Information Institute (III) data on total wildfire counts, we calculated the percentage change in wildfires between 2021 and 2022, and then ranked the states. Delaware, the District of Columbia and Hawaii weren’t included due to limited sample sizes.

Lastly, researchers analyzed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) billion-dollar disaster data. We looked at the entire period available from 1980 to 2024.