Amid Worsening Climate Change, Billion-Dollar Winter Disasters More Than Double in 2 Decades
While winter often means cozy, homey weather, it can also mean severe storms. In fact, billion-dollar winter disasters from December through March have jumped 135.5% over the past 20 years, according to the newest LendingTree study.
And although many may feel the urge to curl up at home during these storms, ensuring your home is protected against them is a crucial first step. So stick around for tips on utilizing your home insurance to prepare for winter storms.
Key findings
- Billion-dollar winter disasters more than doubled over the past 20 years. From 1985 to 2004, there were 31 billion-dollar winter disasters. From 2005 to 2024, there were 73 — a jump of 135.5%. Among disaster types, droughts, flooding events and severe storms all saw increases. Billion-dollar severe storms jumped significantly from six from 1985 to 2004 to 38 from 2005 to 2024.
- Estimated damage from billion-dollar winter disasters similarly spiked from 2005 to 2024. From 1985 to 2004, estimated damage when adjusted for inflation was $143.6 billion. From 2005 to 2024, estimated damage was $329.8 billion, a jump of 129.7%. Damage from billion-dollar severe storms increased the most, jumping 716.8% from $10.0 billion to $81.7 billion.
- Deaths from billion-dollar winter disasters rose over the past 20 years, but they’re down among three disaster types. Deaths increased from 1,330 from 1985 to 2004 to 1,638 from 2005 to 2024. Despite this, flooding, freeze and winter storm deaths decreased. Winter storm deaths plummeted from 850 from 1985 to 2024 to 466 from 2005 to 2024.
- 45 states saw average winter temperatures increase in the analyzed period. Maine experienced the only double-digit increase in average temperatures at 10.2%, ahead of Vermont (8.3%) and Alaska (7.7%). Only four states saw temperatures decrease or stay the same: North Dakota (0.6%), South Dakota (0.4%), Nebraska (0.0%) and Iowa (0.0%).
- Of the states analyzed, only 11 experienced increases in temperature-related winter events (like snowstorms or freezes) over the past decade. Among the states to experience at least 10 such events in both periods evaluated, California and Vermont led with increases of 375.0% and 224.0%, respectively. Ohio (84.6%), North Dakota (77.3%) and Minnesota (77.0%) saw the biggest drops in temperature-related weather events.
Billion-dollar winter disasters jump 135.5%
Over the past 20 years, billion-dollar winter disasters from December through March jumped by 135.5%. From 1985 to 2004, there were 31 billion-dollar winter disasters, rising to 73 from 2005 to 2024.
According to LendingTree home insurance expert and licensed insurance agent Rob Bhatt, a combination of factors are at play.
“We’re seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters like hurricanes, rain and wind events, and more,” he says. “We also have more people living in areas exposed to one or more of these risks. These factors compound each other. We have a larger number of severe climate events, and there are more homes, buildings and infrastructure in the path of each one.”
Billion-dollar disasters during winter by disaster type, 1985-2004 to 2005-2024
| Disaster type | Billion-dollar disasters during winter, 1985-2004 | Billion-dollar disasters during winter, 2005-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 31 | 73 |
| Severe storm | 6 | 38 |
| Drought | 5 | 13 |
| Winter storm | 11 | 11 |
| Flooding | 4 | 8 |
| Freeze | 4 | 2 |
| Wildfire | 1 | 1 |
| Tropical cyclone | 0 | 0 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data. Note: Winter was defined as December through March.
Among the seven disaster types analyzed, three saw increases. Billion-dollar severe storms jumped substantially, rising from six from 1985 to 2004 to 38 from 2005 to 2024. Droughts, which jumped from five to 13, and flooding, which jumped from four to eight, followed.
Why have severe storms seen the biggest increase? A climate change-driven warmer atmosphere leads to more moisture, so snowfall can break records when the temperatures are below freezing. Additionally, warming in the Arctic could weaken the jet stream, allowing polar air to travel further south. As far as droughts, heat-induced evaporation may exacerbate them, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Three disaster types — winter storms, wildfires and tropical cyclones — saw no change in the number of billion-dollar disasters during the winter, while the number of billion-dollar freezes in the same period shrunk from four to two.
Estimated damage spikes 129.7%
Unsurprisingly, estimated damage has grown alongside billion-dollar winter disasters. Adjusted for inflation, billion-dollar winter disaster damage rose 129.7% from $143.6 billion from 1985 to 2004 to $329.8 billion from 2005 to 2024.
By disaster type, billion-dollar severe storm damage increased by the highest percentage, rising 716.8% from $10.0 billion to $81.7 billion. Drought damage was next, increasing 243.3% from $44.7 billion to $153.5 billion. It was the disaster with the most damage in both analyzed periods.
% change in estimated damage from billion-dollar disasters during winter by type, 1985-2004 to 2005-2024
| Disaster type | Total estimated damage from billion-dollar disasters during winter, 1985-2004 | Total estimated damage from billion-dollar disasters during winter, 2005-2024 | % change in estimated damage from billion-dollar disasters during winter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $143.6 billion | $329.8 billion | 129.7% |
| Severe storm | $10.0 billion | $81.7 billion | 716.8% |
| Drought | $44.7 billion | $153.5 billion | 243.3% |
| Flooding | $20.5 billion | $36.1 billion | 76.0% |
| Winter storm | $44.3 billion | $52.7 billion | 18.9% |
| Wildfire | $2.0 billion | $2.3 billion | 17.9% |
| Tropical cyclone | $0.0 billion | $0.0 billion | 0.0% |
| Freeze | $22.0 billion | $3.5 billion | -84.3% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NOAA NCEI data. Notes: Winter was defined as December through March. Estimated damage by disaster type may not add to the total disaster damage figure due to rounding.
The uptick in severe events has tremendously impacted homeowners’ insurance rates, Bhatt says. “These types of events cost insurance companies the most, in terms of the amounts of money they have to pay to repair and rebuild homes,” he says. “When insurance companies’ costs go up, they have to turn around and raise their rates. This impacts everyone in an affected state, including people who a disaster may not have directly impacted.”
Meanwhile, Bhatt says incomes haven’t gone up at the same rate as home insurance premiums for most people. “This means your home insurance bill is taking a larger bite out of your wallet than in the past,” he says.
Freezes were the only disaster type to experience a decrease in damage over the period analyzed, falling 84.3% from $22.0 billion to $3.5 billion.
Deaths fall among 3 disaster types
Wide-scale disasters often involve death. Over the past 20 years, deaths increased from 1,330 from 1985 to 2004 to 1,638 from 2005 to 2024.
Deaths from billion-dollar droughts have risen the most, jumping from 175 to 636 in the period analyzed. Severe storms, which saw deaths increase from 212 to 450, follow. Wildfires were the only other billion-dollar disasters to see an increase in deaths, rising from zero to 28.
Deaths from billion-dollar disasters during winter by disaster type, 1985-2004 to 2005-2024
| Disaster type | Deaths from billion-dollar disasters during winter, 1985-2004 | Deaths from billion-dollar disasters during winter, 2005-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,330 | 1,638 |
| Drought | 175 | 636 |
| Winter storm | 850 | 466 |
| Severe storm | 212 | 450 |
| Flooding | 83 | 57 |
| Wildfire | 0 | 28 |
| Freeze | 10 | 1 |
| Tropical cyclone | 0 | 0 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NOAA NCEI data. Note: Winter was defined as December through March.
Billion-dollar winter storm deaths fell significantly, from 850 from 1985 to 2024 to 466 from 2005 to 2024. Flooding, dropping from 83 to 57, and freezes, dropping from 10 to one, join.
Amid rising temperatures, states see decreases in temperature-related weather events
Over the 20-year periods analyzed, 45 states saw average temperatures increase during the winter months. Maine saw the biggest increase, rising from an average of 19.6 degrees Fahrenheit to 21.6 degrees. That’s a 10.2% increase, making it the only state to rise by at least 10.0%.
Vermont (8.3%) and Alaska (7.7%) saw the next biggest increases.
These rising temperatures could eventually impact insurance rates across the country, Bhatt says.
Top 5: % change in average temperature in winter months by state, 1985-2004 to 2005-2024
| Rank | State | Average temperature in winter months, 1985-2004 | Average temperature in winter months, 2005-2024 | % change in average temperature in winter months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine | 19.6° | 21.6° | 10.2% |
| 2 | Vermont | 21.6° | 23.4° | 8.3% |
| 3 | Alaska | 7.8° | 8.4° | 7.7% |
| 4 | New Hampshire | 23.3° | 24.9° | 6.9% |
| 5 | New York | 25.7° | 27.0° | 5.1% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NOAA NCEI statewide time series data. Notes: Winter was defined as December through March. Data on Hawaii and the District of Columbia wasn’t available. All temperatures are in Fahrenheit.
Only two states saw average winter temperatures decrease: North Dakota (0.6%) and South Dakota (0.4%). Meanwhile, Nebraska and Iowa were the only states with the same average temperatures.
With this increase in average winter temperatures, it’s worth mentioning that only 11 states experienced increases in temperature-related winter events (like snowstorms or freezes) over the past decade. (Note: These are all temperature-related winter events, not just billion-dollar disasters.)
Vermont followed, rising 224.0% from 25 events to 81. In a distant third, temperature-related winter events in Oklahoma rose 86.7%.
Top 5: % change in temperature-related winter events by state, December 2013-March 2014 to December 2023-March 2024
| Rank | State | Temperature-related winter events, December 2013-March 2014 | Temperature-related winter events, December 2023-March 2024 | % change in temperature-related winter events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | 28 | 133 | 375.0% |
| 2 | Vermont | 25 | 81 | 224.0% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 60 | 112 | 86.7% |
| 4 | Utah | 18 | 32 | 77.8% |
| 5 | Kansas | 69 | 115 | 66.7% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of the NOAA Storm Events Database. Notes: Storm events are counted based on their impact on individual counties. Temperature-related winter events include extreme cold/wind chills, cold/wind chills, winter weather and frost/freeze. Only states with 10 events in both periods were analyzed.
Meanwhile, Ohio saw the biggest decrease, falling 84.6%. North Dakota (77.3%) follows.
Full rankings
% change in average temperature in winter months by state, 1985-2004 to 2005-2024
| Rank | State | Average temperature in winter months, 1985-2004 | Average temperature in winter months, 2005-2024 | % change in average temperature in winter months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine | 19.6° | 21.6° | 10.2% |
| 2 | Vermont | 21.6° | 23.4° | 8.3% |
| 3 | Alaska | 7.8° | 8.4° | 7.7% |
| 4 | New Hampshire | 23.3° | 24.9° | 6.9% |
| 5 | New York | 25.7° | 27.0° | 5.1% |
| 6 | Massachusetts | 29.7° | 31.1° | 4.7% |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 32.4° | 33.8° | 4.3% |
| 8 | New Jersey | 35.2° | 36.6° | 4.0% |
| 9 | Connecticut | 31.1° | 32.3° | 3.9% |
| 10 | Delaware | 38.4° | 39.7° | 3.4% |
| 11 | Michigan | 24.6° | 25.4° | 3.3% |
| 12 | Maryland | 37.5° | 38.7° | 3.2% |
| 13 | Virginia | 39.4° | 40.6° | 3.0% |
| 14 | North Carolina | 44.1° | 45.4° | 2.9% |
| 14 | Pennsylvania | 30.8° | 31.7° | 2.9% |
| 16 | West Virginia | 35.5° | 36.5° | 2.8% |
| 17 | South Carolina | 48.6° | 49.9° | 2.7% |
| 18 | Mississippi | 49.4° | 50.7° | 2.6% |
| 18 | Tennessee | 42.1° | 43.2° | 2.6% |
| 18 | Georgia | 50.2° | 51.5° | 2.6% |
| 18 | Kentucky | 38.9° | 39.9° | 2.6% |
| 22 | Ohio | 32.8° | 33.6° | 2.4% |
| 22 | Alabama | 49.2° | 50.4° | 2.4% |
| 22 | Indiana | 32.9° | 33.7° | 2.4% |
| 25 | New Mexico | 38.5° | 39.4° | 2.3% |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 21.4° | 21.9° | 2.3% |
| 25 | Louisiana | 53.3° | 54.5° | 2.3% |
| 28 | Missouri | 36.2° | 37.0° | 2.2% |
| 28 | Idaho | 27.5° | 28.1° | 2.2% |
| 28 | Texas | 50.6° | 51.7° | 2.2% |
| 31 | Oklahoma | 42.5° | 43.4° | 2.1% |
| 32 | Arkansas | 44.4° | 45.3° | 2.0% |
| 33 | Illinois | 32.5° | 33.1° | 1.8% |
| 33 | Florida | 61.0° | 62.1° | 1.8% |
| 35 | Wyoming | 24.4° | 24.8° | 1.6% |
| 36 | Kansas | 35.7° | 36.2° | 1.4% |
| 37 | Arizona | 45.4° | 46.0° | 1.3% |
| 37 | Utah | 31.6° | 32.0° | 1.3% |
| 39 | Minnesota | 17.2° | 17.4° | 1.2% |
| 40 | Nevada | 35.0° | 35.4° | 1.1% |
| 40 | California | 46.1° | 46.6° | 1.1% |
| 42 | Oregon | 34.9° | 35.2° | 0.9% |
| 43 | Montana | 24.5° | 24.7° | 0.8% |
| 44 | Colorado | 29.3° | 29.4° | 0.3% |
| 44 | Washington | 34.0° | 34.1° | 0.3% |
| 46 | Nebraska | 29.8° | 29.8° | 0.0% |
| 46 | Iowa | 26.4° | 26.4° | 0.0% |
| 48 | South Dakota | 24.0° | 23.9° | -0.4% |
| 49 | North Dakota | 17.1° | 17.0° | -0.6% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NOAA NCEI statewide time series data. Notes: Winter was defined as December through March. Data on Hawaii and the District of Columbia wasn’t available. All temperatures are in Fahrenheit.
% change in temperature-related winter events by state, December 2013-March 2014 to December 2023-March 2024
| Rank | State | Temperature-related winter events, December 2013-March 2014 | Temperature-related winter events, December 2023-March 2024 | % change in temperature-related winter events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | 28 | 133 | 375.0% |
| 2 | Vermont | 25 | 81 | 224.0% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 60 | 112 | 86.7% |
| 4 | Utah | 18 | 32 | 77.8% |
| 5 | Kansas | 69 | 115 | 66.7% |
| 6 | Mississippi | 38 | 60 | 57.9% |
| 7 | Colorado | 154 | 236 | 53.2% |
| 8 | South Dakota | 170 | 259 | 52.4% |
| 9 | Missouri | 116 | 171 | 47.4% |
| 10 | Wyoming | 103 | 119 | 15.5% |
| 11 | Maine | 62 | 65 | 4.8% |
| 12 | New York | 213 | 192 | -9.9% |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 19 | 16 | -15.8% |
| 14 | Illinois | 265 | 222 | -16.2% |
| 15 | Washington | 48 | 38 | -20.8% |
| 16 | Nebraska | 262 | 195 | -25.6% |
| 17 | Alabama | 103 | 73 | -29.1% |
| 18 | Indiana | 149 | 105 | -29.5% |
| 19 | Idaho | 65 | 45 | -30.8% |
| 20 | Texas | 375 | 254 | -32.3% |
| 21 | Tennessee | 164 | 106 | -35.4% |
| 22 | West Virginia | 304 | 187 | -38.5% |
| 23 | Louisiana | 98 | 60 | -38.8% |
| 24 | Pennsylvania | 288 | 164 | -43.1% |
| 25 | Iowa | 289 | 147 | -49.1% |
| 26 | Connecticut | 21 | 10 | -52.4% |
| 27 | Wisconsin | 360 | 159 | -55.8% |
| 28 | Montana | 176 | 69 | -60.8% |
| 29 | Kentucky | 159 | 62 | -61.0% |
| 30 | Arkansas | 283 | 100 | -64.7% |
| 31 | Maryland | 223 | 73 | -67.3% |
| 32 | North Carolina | 270 | 86 | -68.1% |
| 33 | Virginia | 410 | 120 | -70.7% |
| 34 | New Jersey | 261 | 70 | -73.2% |
| 35 | Michigan | 252 | 63 | -75.0% |
| 36 | Minnesota | 610 | 140 | -77.0% |
| 37 | North Dakota | 309 | 70 | -77.3% |
| 38 | Ohio | 389 | 60 | -84.6% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of the NOAA Storm Events Database. Notes: Storm events are counted based on their impact on individual counties. Temperature-related winter events include extreme cold/wind chills, cold/wind chills, winter weather and frost/freeze. Only states with 10 events in both periods were analyzed.
Preparing your home for a changing climate: Top expert tips
With today’s volatile climate, prepping for winter disasters is crucial — particularly for homeowners. We recommend the following advice:
- Even if winter is milder in your area, don’t scale back on your home insurance. “In recent years, we’ve seen freezes impact many different areas, including places that haven’t had them in the past,” Bhatt says. “Even areas that have seen a drop in cold weather events can still get them. The climate is as unpredictable as ever. Now is not the time to scale back your homeowners insurance coverage.”
- Know what your policy covers. Homeowners insurance covers most natural disasters, but not all of them. If you live in an area with cold temperatures, make sure your policy covers common winter hazards. These include freezes that cause your pipes to burst and snow-and-ice buildups that lead to a structural collapse. If you have a very basic policy that doesn’t cover these risks, consider upgrading to one that does.
Methodology
LendingTree researchers analyzed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) billion-dollar disaster data to calculate the change in frequency, estimated damage and deaths from billion-dollar disasters during the winter months. Winter months were defined as December through March. We evaluated the 20-year periods of 1985 to 2004 and 2005 to 2024.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) climate statewide time series data was analyzed to calculate the change in average temperature by state. The same 20-year periods were used. Data for Hawaii and the District of Columbia wasn’t available.
We also analyzed NOAA Storm Events Database data to calculate the overall change in winter temperature events from December 2013 to March 2014 to December 2023 to March 2024. Only states with at least 10 events in both periods were included.
Winter temperature events were defined as extreme cold/wind chills, cold/wind chills, winter weather and frost/freeze.